The Lizard Master: Huckabee to Run as Independent?

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February 20, 2008 , Huckabee to Run as Independent?

A week ago we made the bold prediction that "Hucks done and he'll probably be stepping aside real soon, probably before the end of the week." With only two days left, here's what Huckabee had to say about pulling out of the race:

With the prediction above looking less and less likely, let's revise it. Mike Huckabee will run as an Independent. As a Florida Democrat, it's easy to see the monumental short comings of the Democratic party and it's refreshing to see someone with the spotlight speaking openly about either party. By staying in the primary, he has already directly taken the Republican Party on as more and more leaders ask him to step aside; however, calling them smug and elitist essentially burns any bridge he may have had with them. This is not a "You don't have Nixon to kick around anymore" type statement, this is straight to the point even referencing the "Death of the Republican Party."

There are several reasons to believe Mike Huckabee will run as an Independent. First and foremost he states, "I'll tell you why I'm in this race. Some of us care deeply about issues we know will leave the table if some of us aren't out there to keep them going." There is absolutely no reason to believe at all that those issues he speaks of will suddenly become a central topic in a general election between McCain and the Democratic Nominee. Secondly, look at the Delegate math that a Huckabee supporter put together. Eleven of the states McCain won almost assuredly will go Democratic in November. In the Republican leaning states McCain either lost or struggled and there is no way Huckabee strategists haven't seen this.

Thirdly, why not? Just a couple years ago we saw Joe Lieberman go down this same path where he was at odds in a primary with his party. Joe left, ran as an independent, and won. So here's a crazy theory. McCain won't win the Democratic states in November, but he may not be able to win the Republican states with Huckabee in the race either. There's no reason not to think that a third-party or Independent run from Huckabee might create a two person race making John McCain almost irrelevant. Sure, he'll instantly get charged with a "Vote for Huckabee is a vote for Obama or Clinton" attack, but if he is able to present that in a way where it's America vs the Political machine he has a very real shot.

Fourth, we don't know everyone who is running yet. He has a chance assuming a three way race, but he becomes a real possibility if someone like Sam Nunn jumps into the race. Sam Nunn has served twenty-four years as a Democratic Senator from Georgia and has mentioned that he has an interest in running an Independent campaign. A southern Democrat in the race changes the political landscape completely. This may not happen, but it remains to be seen where we will be once the primary dust has settled. And with more and more of us registering as Independent, our allegiance to the parties is diminishing.

Lastly, he is still in the race. Huckabee is basically mathematically eliminated. If he steps down, he'll lose some of the attention he is getting now. Sure if he announced a candidacy separate from the Republican Party that would make some initial noise, but right now he's on the ballot, raising funds, and campaigning getting his message out there. Conceding will provide poor showings in the final primary states above the fact that he has basically already lost. If he sees this primary through until the end, even decent non-winning numbers will give him some momentum for turning the funds he raised into a third-party or Independent bid.

Comments

Dang you write more on Huckabee than you do on the Democratic candidates! - Fat

Just for the record I disagree - Huckabee has stated on record several times that he will not run as a third party or independent candidate. That being said, a Huckabee ticket would almost ensure a Democratic victory in November, but I would still probably vote for him. - Fat

I have a lot of respect for Huckabee, and he's a great speaker that speaks very matter of factly. But at this point, he knows he CANNOT win the primaries. He's trying to make a voice, and I can appreciate that. But he is only helping to split the Republican party right now. The best thing that could happen would be that he runs as McCain's VP. But I doubt that would happen. Like Fat says, if he runs as an independant, it would guarantee a victory for the Democrats, and as far as the values that Huckabee speaks of, the absolute worst thing that he could do would be to ensure a Democrat victory. - Todd

Huckabee in this vid represents the in your face brand of christianity I find unattractive (one need not look too far to find that attitude elsewhere). FOr example, "Public school is bad because it destroys children's souls," a blogger at notconformedthoughts.com (NCT). Huck seems to be saying, "Listen. You better pay attention to me." And, of course, he has every right along with a constituency such as the NCTs to say what he wants or believes is best. But I don't think his angry tone works in this case. You might be right liz. He might be building the case that the GOP made him be independent and of course who else is going to look out for the Christian right (besides Jesus)? The NYT drive-by attempt on McCain is classic Sun Tzu. The easiest way to marginalize an ethical politician/opponent is to embarass him by showing he's unethical. In Huck's case it would be "oh, you are so unloving, so unchristian, so etc." I think McCain will weather this attack. His "I'm very disappointed in the NYT," statements was perfectly muted. Now the conservatives are doing what they love most, ie slamming the NYT. If he had attacked the NYT, the media would circle the wagons and attack McCain. I don't think Huck could do as well in this regard but he does show a lot of savvy. THe democrat party is better at responding to these things in general or maybe the media is more cooperative? Nahhhhh.... - cdl

ANother unattractive trait Huck starts to display with this vid is that of a whiny, manipulative baby brother. It's not ez for religious people to run for secular offices unless they can be seen as agendaless, servant leaders. - cdl

cdl, I don't see that at all. I do wish that Huckabee would conceed as I think he would make a great VP. However, he's really burying himself right now (in my opinion). On the other hand though, I don't think he's any of those things you suggest he is. I definitely think he's a man of character. I think he feels strongly about his beliefs and feels a sense of determination and perseverence for the people he represents, and I think those are the emotions you're seeing. For me, there are many things that, right now, are of grave importance. The US needs to get back on track when it comes to the economy. Bush has been frivilous when it comes to spending, although a lot of it I support (as I fully support the spread of Democracy, whether they say they want it or not), but we really need to get back on track in terms of budgeting and spending. I don't know that Huckabee necessarily is the man for that. I know I always say that the US should be an example, and that our citizens live by example. Really, with children being born out of wedlock, and broken homes / families, maybe we DO need someone who could lead by example. Seriously. At this point, I would really like to see him as a VP, I think he would add the much needed values to McCain (that he currently lacks). - Todd

I agree on the spending points. And, I'm good with those with good examples. I don't see the examples of lacking values by McCain - cdl

McCain has values, but I think he's more or less indifferent on the issues that Huckabee stands for. - Todd

I don't see that either. Feel free to enumerate. - cdl

Are we talking values or issues? You say McCain has values, but that he's indifferent on the issues. I know McCain is not a fan of the Fair Tax that Huckabee loves so much. I think they share many of the same values though. - TLM

CDL said, " FOr example, "Public school is bad because it destroys children's souls," a blogger at notconformedthoughts.com (NCT)." Just wanted to point out that wasa comment left on my blog, not something said in a blog post. - Matthew Cochrane

McCain rarely speaks on the social right issues that largely makes up Huckabee's platform. I believe that is what Todd is referring to. McCain's platform consists of a large dose of national defense with a little bit of fiscal conservatism thrown in. I'm not sure if I've ever heard him speak on abortion, marriage or other cultural-driven issues. He also does not support the Human Life Amendment, which Huckabee does support. This lack of emphasis on these issues leave many conservatives with the impression that he is largely indifferent toward these social issues. - Matthew Cochrane

I meant to respond to this after I got home from work, but you explained it exactly. That's specifically what I mean. I honestly can't ever remember hearing him talk about any of those issues. CDL, they are issues, if the candidate wants to make them an issue for his platform. They might be based on his values, but they are still his platform's issues. And I honestly have no idea what McCain stands for with that regard, nor do I even think he's thought once or twice about it. Huckabee wants to bring family values back to America. It's idealistic to think that way at times, but I've often said that the government needs to lead by example, and it's not doing a good job of it. It's no wonder everyone is in debt and the rate of broken homes is at the rate it is today... - Todd

issues come; issues go - cdl

FOr the record, Cochrane said in reference to "public schools..destroy souls," "Well, like I said I do not disagree at all." - cdl

Todd: "you explained it exactly"...not sure what that means - cdl

Todd, "government needs to lead by example." I think the constitution says the govt is representative. - cdl

cdl, you explained it exactly means that Matt answered your question to me, exactly how I would have liked to answer it. So for my answer, just look at his answer. However, I did go into detail. - Todd

And, yes, the government is representative, but if the government expects people to be fiscally responsible, then the government itself needs to be fiscally responsible. I mean, we can argue this for the sake of argument, but I think most people would probably agree with that statement. Do you think the government should NOT be fiscally responsible? Do you think that the people should not be responsible. - Todd

Todd, I don't think the HLA is much of a litmus test since it's stillborn already. You say that fiscal convservatism is a McCain issue so I don't follow. BUT on fiscal stuff, I think Christians can have a tremendous role in being an example and holding our govt's feet to the fire to spend wisely across the fed budget. The items within the budget are the purview of the entire budget, but spending within the govts means and not overtaxing are legit issues for X'ns. Not sure what people being responsible means. - cdl

"The items within the budget are the purview of the entire budget" Sorry, I meant to fat finger "The items within the budget are the purview of the entire population." - cdl

Look, you know exactly what I'm saying. If you NEED me to go into detail about every single thing, I will. People need to be FISCALLY responsible. And the government needs to be an example by being fiscally responsible as well. We elect people into office who we trust. We (government and people) cannot expect people to be fiscally responsible if the US Government is being completely fiscally irresponsible. What about this do you not understand what I'm saying? - Todd

Anger: fear with a party dress on . Todd, I'm sure you don't want me to misunderstand you so I was asking you some questions about what you are saying. You steered clear of MLA and I think I understand your last post - cdl

Look, I'm the one who left the comment on NCT. I said public schools destroy souls, not MC. He was the one who erroneously called what I said, "hyperbole." When he said he didn't disagree with me it was "about sending our children to receive agenda-driven educations from state-run institutions" and had nothing to do with "schools destroy childrens' souls." Hey, that rhymes. - Stephen

So it's worth his time to clarify that it's comment instead of post but not that he disagrees with "schools destroy..souls." Since he hasn't clearly shown he disagrees, it's the same as a post. - cdl

Todd, I am still confused sinced you said Cochrane said it exactly. You are upset about what are not McCain's issues and you talk about fiscal stuff. Cochrane says fiscal stuff is an issue with Mac. And you don't say anything about HLA so I guess that's not what you are talking about. You don't like children born out of wedlock nor do I, but I don't hear any candidates doing much with that issue. I'm just trying to figure out what you are saying. I do wonder why little is said by anyone about pointing the finger at those responsible for the mortgage default crisis and I don't mean the lenders. - cdl

CDL said, "So it's worth his time to clarify that it's comment instead of post but not that he disagrees with "schools destroy..souls." Since he hasn't clearly shown he disagrees, it's the same as a post." - That's about the most convoluted line of logic I've ever seen. Basically, everything I don't explicitly disagree with on my blog is the same thing as writing a blog post in my name on. CDL, please stop attributing things I have never said to me. - Matthew Cochrane

For the record I agree with Todd here. Government should be more fiscally conservative and lead, by example, on matters of being fiscally responsible. Instead, they have decided to go in more debt to give us money back this year, and then they tell us to go spend it. - Matthew Cochrane

See that Todd. Cochrane still can't say he disagrees with Stephen's overgeneralizing about schools. - cdl

cdl, you don't really know me, so you don't know (like some of the others here) what I stand for. I'll take your immediate example of the mortgage crisis. I certainly won't for a minute say that the responsibility lies with everyone else, it's certainly the fault of the people actually taking out the loans. They should have been more responsible in determining what they could afford and what they couldn't. In addition to that, in the true sense of a conservative, I'm against the federal government telling us how we should live our lives. But at the same time, if the government (the people, the people we elect, etc) expect the citizens of the US to be fiscally responsible, then I really think the government needs to be fiscally responsible as well. They SHOULD lead as an example since we are the ones electing them to do so. I missed the original comment about schools destroying souls. I went to school in Mass for middle school, and went to HS in Washington D.C. I felt my education was decent with the exception that we spent far too little time learning world geography, and History pretty much ended at the Civil War for me. I never learned anything past that (it was never taught?). As for McCain, I support McCain because I think the biggest, immediate problem facing this country RIGHT NOW, is the economy. McCain is VERY "Anti-Pork", which I agree with completely. All this pork crap is stuff that should NOT even be in the federal budget. Like the past 10-15 years of the Big Dig, why was that in the federal budget? Anyway, he IS pro military (as in, supports intelligence spending) but also wants to eliminate pork. THAT is why I voted for McCain. But on the other hand, I like Huckabee because I think he brings values and issues to the table that pretty much all other candidates aer indifferent on. To them, they might not be issues, they might not be important... but to him (Huck), they ARE important. I think Huckabee would be an excellent VP to McCain to help offset many of McCain's left-leaning views. I don't know what HLA is... High Level Architecture, Human Leukocyte Antigen? - Todd

Todd, Ref a blogger: HLA = Human Life Amendment; High Level Architecture gives me cold sweats. This convo sort of brings me to back to what I wondered a while back. What value does McCain not have? I like McCain for similar reasons to yours. Bailing out those involved in the mortgage crisis btw is undeserveded but just smart for the economy and recalls the fed's failure to help after the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression. - cdl

CDL, I disagree completely with you about the Federal government bailing out people in the mortgage crisis. One, the Federal government is using money they don't have, thus going in more debt. Two, I believe the market should not be interfered with - this country needs less federal government interference, not more. By interfering with the free market, house prices will not fall as much as they would have. Foreclosures and short-sells are what drive housing prices down, causing affordable housing. This is the market's way of giving many people a chance to buy houses and upgrade their living conditions. Now the housing market will stagnate and all the feds effectively did was delay the inevitable. The government seems only concerned with short term fixes right now though, because they just can't see past the next election. Capitalism is a beautiful thing - it does not need this kind of blatant government interference to work. - Matthew Cochrane

"See that Todd. Cochrane still can't say he disagrees with Stephen's overgeneralizing about schools." - CDL, I forgot you have a hard time understanding big words and reading people's comments for what they actually said. I called it hyperbole, meaning I thought it was an intentional exaggeration. I do disagree with the statement, though I think the public school system is a mess. It is more concerned with political correctness, building self-esteem and stupid agendas and not with preparing students for the real world. There should be a much greater emphasis on literature, history and capitalism/entrepreneurship. But I do not believe it destroys children's souls - it just doesn't cultivate their minds like it should. I would still ask you to stop being deceptive and falsely attributing things I NEVER said to me. I didn't say I disagreed with the statement because I was vastly more concerned with your deceptiveness then I was with one comment left on my blog. I get lots of comments I disagree with on my blog - if I took the time to respond to every single one I wouldn't have time for anything else. - Matthew Cochrane

I agree, there were many teachers I had that were excellent and there were many classes that I thought were equally excellent, but I had THREE sexual education classes, and for what purpose? I went to a really great middle school. It was a prep school in MA. We were forced to take a sex ed class from this lady that looked a lot like Nancy Pelosi. Looking back on it now, I honestly don't feel that I really got anything out of it... seriously. There was a lot of stupid stuff they tought us... we were in 6th grade, and they had us putting condoms on bananas. That was the first. Then, when I went to high school, we had one our Freshman year, and then we had another one our Junior year. One of them was a subset of Biology class, and I learned about the human anatomy, so that wasn't a complete waste. I could have done with ONE class, not three. We also had an American History class... and we spent less than a week on George Washington, but spent almost an entire month on Dr. Reverend Martin Luther King. Ask me anything about Dr. King, and I can tell you. I can't really tell you much about George Washington though... (seriously). I mean, I realize he was the first president, and that he was integral in both the Declaration of Independance and the Constitution of the United States, but other than that, I don't know much. We also were going to read Huckleberry Fin in High School, but it was deemed racist and derogatory, so we didn't read it. However, I had actually read it in middle school. It's ridiculous of course, because if you've ever read the book, you know it that it shows triumph over racism. So yeah, the education was good, and bad.... - Todd

TOdd, McCain is known for bucking the Republican orthodoxy and working across party lines. IMHO, that doesn't equate to left leaning. So now, in addition to not knowing what values issues of McCain you are hesitant about, I'm also not sure what the left leaning assessment is about. - cdl

"I'm also not sure what the left leaning assessment is about." Are you serious, CDL? Let's see...McCain's stances on immigration, his participation in the "Gang of 14", stances on economic restrictions to reduce global warming, the McCain-Feingold act, and opposition to Bush's tax cuts are all some issues he's "left-leaning" on. Whether or not you consider those bad things will depend on how you feel about those issues, but it is not hard at all to find issues that he's left-leaning on.

He does have a lifetime conservvative rating from the ACU (American Conservative Union) of 82% but conservatives will point out that in recent years it has been much lower than that. In fact, for the past couple years his rating has been in the low 60's. Now, again, some might consider these stances as good but, regardless, they are still "left-leaning."

- Matthew Cochrane

I could have sworn I just heard McCain campaigning to make the Bush tax cuts permenant. Is that a flip flop?

- TLM

Just testing out this NEW fangled and fancy editor.

It is cool because:

blah
poop
fart

- Todd

Todd, your mastery of right leaning potty words makes you the most farticulate blogger yet blogging.

Note Cochrane's admission at last that he disagrees that schools destroy souls, but he won't condescend to agree with me on saying such was an overstatement.

- cdl

I'm glad you approve. I'm not really sure what your argument is, to be honest. It almost appears at times as though you are attempting the Socratic form of argument, but not quite getting the hang of it.

For the most part, I gather that you're a conservative, but you seem to have reservations in things that I've said and that Matt has said. Tell me what YOU think, now... what are YOUR beliefs and who do you think (of the candidates available) should be president?

- Todd

Todd, I'm not? I'm not arguing anything. I just want to know what McCain's bad values are and what's left leaning in your opinion. I don't care what Cochrane says because he has no credibility with me.

As for my beliefs. The Bible rules my life, thoughts, heart, but the government is established by the constitution. I don't hold non believers to the Bible's teaching. First they have to believe.

I like Guiliani (except I can't spell it) so now I'm for McCain. I liked McCain in 2000 until he imploded in South Carolina. The farther right of the GOP gives me the creeps. They seem to think that what they think is true cuz they say so. I don't esp. get fired up for Huckabee because he ran so religiously in Iowa (esp.) for a secular office. THere should be no religious test for political office. And now everyone thinks they have to say they are a born again Christian to get elected (didn't start with Huckabee though). I do admire Huckabee for saying he doesn't believe in evolution though he should have said "what difference does it make."

My thesis is that a president will be hamstrung if he is too evangelical and Republican. I don't like abortion but nobody is making me get one. HLA is mainly a litmus testing device. I'd probably vote for it but I won't get a chance to in my lifetime. I don't like gay marriage but nobody is making me marry one. I think we Christians need to focus on love, the gospel and making sure we understand what the Bible really says. No one will get to heaven because they aren't gay and didn't abort a baby or because they hate those who are or did. I think it's good that schools can't force people to pray to the majority's god. I think it's more important that we not enact "our" agenda if we can't do it in love (and I don't mean what the right wing calls love, or tough love, or whatever).

I think it's very important that any Republican be president because of the future composition of the Supreme Court. Even better if it's a Guiliani or McCain who knows how to force a democrat congress to allow a vote on his nominees.

Thanks for asking your feartfelt questions.

- cdl

"THere should be no religious test for political office. And now everyone thinks they have to say they are a born again Christian to get elected (didn't start with Huckabee though). I do admire Huckabee for saying he doesn't believe in evolution though he should have said "what difference does it make."

First, I think it's funny you should say that there should not be a religious test for political office because Huckabee never once tested the religion of his opponents and usually spoke of his own religion when it was his religion that was being tested by the liberal hosts at the debates. Second, when he was asked about his stance on evolution, his answer pretty much was, "what difference does it make." He repeatedly stated that believing or not believing in evolution would not make him a better or worst candidate for presidency. Just saying.

Btw, being able to make paragraphs in a comment thread is a major plus.

- Stephen

Looks like TLM has one up on NCT

- Stephen

Stephen, yes I think you are right about Huckabee and evolution. It is complicated. To clarify, we each get to vote our choice and religious testing may be part of the individual's choice just not for this individual.

- cdl

Also Stephen I think Huckabee could be accused of pandering to the ECs. "I don't believe in evolution but it shouldn't matter" kinda has it both ways. IMHO "it shouldn't matter [period]"

- cdl

Stephen, I think you should pay for the upgrade to NCTs text box.

- cdl

Well, every politician panders to some extent. I don't think you can fault Huckabee for answering a question that was asked of him at a debate though.

- Matthew Cochrane

everyone panders whether it's true or not doesn't make it right and confirms what I'm saying: an EC Republican president -- too tuff. Any answer can be faulted regardless of it's location. That's what debates are about.

- cdl

Wll, yeah, but its almost like you're blaming him for constantly bringing his faith up, when in reality, it was almost always brought up by the media not him.

- Matthew Cochrane

That is one of the unfortunate things about presidential politics. If you allow yourself to be defined....Bush did it to Gore and Kerry and before that Bush did it to Dukakis. The liberal and flip flopper definitions are effective, deadly and terminal. I don't know how Huckabee can redefine himself.

- cdl

Since Huck doesn't like Romney for VP and see this oped by Madeleine Murray O'Hare's son Bill on the idea of a third party...

http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2008/082008/08152008/400545

what if Huck doesn't get the VP nomination? and what would a Christian Democrat Party (one possible name) be like?

- c

A Christian Democrat Party would look like Tim Kaine and that's why he's an interesting pick.

Ever hear of this group?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_For_Life

- TLM

based on stephanopolis (sp?) roundtable video on abcnews.com, McCain hit it outa the park at Saddleback

George Will, always brilliant, pointed out that the last Republican/Democrat ticket was Andrew Johnson's and "that didn't turn out too well"

- c

the View won't talk about Edwards, but Coultergiest

Edwards is not a fagot but he is a maggot

- c

man; I don't know if Obama's been saying anything about how "McCain cheated at Saddleback" but that's embarassing. Obama did so badly that they have to accuse McCain of cheating. If Obama's so great he should be able to beat McCain who's supposedly so terrible even if McCain did have the questions in advance.

- c

They may be, but I haven't heard that. I do know people are questioning it because McCain wasn't at the event in a cone of silence and we'll have to take him at his word, but I wouldn't put that on the Obama camp.

- TLM

Arlen Specter is now a Democrat. The man knows how to stay electable.

- c

Snow and whatsername next?

- c